May 2007 is month 21 since Katrina. The heat is beginning and it's time for the Formosan termites to swarm. Air conditioning is becoming more important and it's hard to find a repairman anywhere. It's hard to be optimistic when it looks like nothing will change. Race, flood protection, and the economic future of the city remain in doubt. Hurricane Season 2007 starts on June 1st. Do you think we are ready?

As of 5/1/7 GCR & Associates Inc. (Greg Rigamer) is reporting population in Orleans has reached 255,000. This is high compared to other demographers.  GCR reports heavy growth in the most damaged areas accounts for the increase. With 35,000 now living in New Orleans East, more in Gentilly, Lakeview and the Lower Ninth, New Orleans is positioned for the 2007 Hurricane Season to be another disaster.

Levee and pump repairs are behind schedule, especially on the westbank. Coastal restoration isn't happening, and people are still coming back to live in the lowest areas of town. Congress and the Administration are recoiling from a $14 billion addition to the Water Resources bill that would partially provide for coastal restoration and set a process in place to keep it moving. The deadly and costly result is statistically predictable. (Keep in mind New Orleans hasn't been hit by a 100 year storm by any definition you choose since 1947, Betsy and Katrina both missed!)

With 13,753 Road Home closings completed by April 30th and about $750 million released, ICF is showing signs of life. The 7,500+ closings in April suggest the program might finally be getting rolling. The decision to issue lump sum awards and reduce the title search requirment for repair awards should also help speed things along. Complaints and appeals are not reported statistically so we'll just have to wait to see how they affect progress.

However all is not well with the Road Home. The program might run out of money before it is done. $7.5 billion is available. Extrapolating based on the first 60,000 awards suggests $9.9 billion will be needed. Assuming the most injured applied early and have already been entered into the calculations might help, but there is no trend that supports this idea so far. First come, first served. Don Powell weighed in on May 4 with an emphatic letter to the editor saying the feds had been generous and the state needed to look to its faulty and illegal program design and implementation. Maybe foreknowledge of this "faux pas" is why Blanco declined to run for reelection. If the shortfall turns out to be fact, we can expect to be dealing with lawsuits until the literal end of time.The Legislature may be planning to use the state surplus, but that is needed for infrastructure or even better yet coastal restoration.

Donald Powell and Andy Kopplin testified before Congressional Committees regarding the recovery and the Road Home in particular. In a curious way, Powell confirmed the federal responsibility for the flooding while trying to distance the feds from wind damage. He said:

"As elected officials have said many times, the federal government is responsible for this hurricane damage because of the failure of the levee system. And now nearly half of the federal funding is going to homeowners that experienced no levee-related damage."

Is this the first admission by the White House that failure of the federal levees and not a natural disaster was responsible for much of Katrina's damage? One might also wonder if Mississippi CDBG funding was limited to "levee-related" damage as well.

In another federal action, passage of the Iraq War funding bill on May 24 includes the waiver of matching funds which Louisiana has long sought.

Crime is either slowing or no longer being reported. There have been no high profile multiple murders lately. More of the news in focused on gangs disbanded and high profile arrests. Locals think the federal law enforcement push is having an impact.

Public housing is available in the St. Thomas housing project. 139 of 303 repaired units are available without demand. Some people don't want to come back that bad. Reasons for not taking the avialable housing: a) I'm better off here than in New Orleans b) schools and health care are still broken in New Orleans c)my gang was feuding with the St. Thomas gangs so I can't live there. Don't worry, they will fill up soon.

Jazz Fest was the best ever. In the best tradition of "Bread and Circuses" the public was diverted from serious issues and took the opportunity to kick back. If you like crowds, heat and music this was definitely the place to be. Jazz Fest is arguably the best show in town. At $45 per day it is not free but compared to many other events it is a bargain. Also on the entertainment front the Saints are back in the news. NFL "Draft Fest" produced a bonanza of pontification. The PGA tour visited New Orleans in April and produced another first time winner.

Robin Jarvis quit, effective before next school year, as head of the RSD. Attention is now on her successor, Paul Vallas from Philadelphia.Were Nagin and Blakely really on a job interview during their visit last month?


Follow up:

• Van Antwerp to Command the Corps - After meeting and making nice with the whole gang, Robert has apparently sold the team. Mary Landrieu announced on April 30 that she is no longer blocking his appointment. Vitter released his block on April 27th.
  
• cars at the airport - still gathering dust?
  
• the Vieux Carre Commission vs Orleans sanitation. Veronica White continues to be an irritating influence in Nagin's administration especially for Ralph Lupin.