ConsenCIS DotNet Home: New Orleans: Katrina: The Recovery: 2 The Second Year: Recovery Timeline:

22 Months


   Topics
GeographyHeadlinesInfrastructureKatrinaNeighborhoodsPeopleRecreation
June 2007 is month 22 since Katrina. Hurricane Season 2007 started on June 1st and we hope we are ready. Without El Ninõ in the Pacific to protect us with wind shear across the Gulf, this year could be sporty. The Loop Current may be working in our favor this year as it generated a new eddy in May which will be well to our west of the when the height of the danger season arrives in August and September. Planning to evacuate those unable to evacuate themselves is continuing but the contracts have yet to be let and parts of the plan are still vague.

The Klotzbach-Gray prediction at the University of Colorado is one of the most referenced hurricane predictions in the business. Updated May 31: The risk of a major hurricane making landfall in 2007 is 140% of average. Predictions include 17 named storms,  9 hurricanes, and  5 major storms. Basin wide ACE of 170. Strike probabilities are also up at 49% for Gulf Coast, 50% for the East Coast, and  74% U.S. Worry days are predicted to be 40 for hurricanes, and 11 for intense storms.

The Corps published a new risk assessment this month. None too optimistic, they don't show the city to be protected from storm induced flooding. In fact all the Corps has been able to do is provide updated estimates of how many feet deep the flooding will be throughout the city. Across the city the improvement from preKatrina to now is only about a one foot reduction in the expected flooding. The situation is so grim on the Westbank to the east of the Harvey Canal that the Corps isn't even hazarding a guess. The incomplete improvements around the Harvey Canal continue to leave the area wide open. This was one area in the city that avoided flooding by Katrina. Does it make sense to leave it unprotected for the foreseeable future?

General recovery progress is noticeable, but it seems wherever we focus our attention there are more challenges to be met. Half of the city is bustling with activity, habitable and clean courtesy of some new garbage contracts although vast  stretches of the hard hit districts are still mostly abandoned. Everyone but the last 200,000 citizens are back. Many of the missing may never return, having now made their lives over elsewhere. Government provided infrastructure like levees, roads, public schools, justice, water and sewer service are continuing to crumble and under perform.  Way too many traffic lights still aren't working. Roads are crumbling and there is construction everywhere uptown. Private infrastructure like electricity, private schools and telecom are working fine. The jury is still out on the public charter schools as we await the detailed results from the LEAP tests. The health care system is working fine for the insured and struggling with the uninsured. FEMA just agreed to pay for rebuilding the water system at least back to its preK condition.

With 22,174 Road Home closings completed by May 28 and about $1.7 billion released, ICF is definitely in gear. Applications will be accepted until July 31. After that we'll know how great the deficit is. Right now it looks like $10.5 billion in payments plus $750 million in administration will cost taxpayers $11.3 billion. At the current rate the program will reach 140,000 closings by June 1, 2008. Hazard Mitigation Grants, Increased Cost of Compliance, Rental Building Assistance and many appeals will remain to be resolved.

The Louisiana Legislative regular session just ended and the state will spend an unprecedented $32 billion next year of which half comes from federal sources.

In a major State of the City address on May 30, 2007 Mayor Nagin laid it out for all to see. His big points were what we've accomplished and the list is significant even if a bit over stated: a)debris removed, garbage collection improving cleanliness b)levees repaired (well, maybe some) c)streets crumbling but being repaired d)health care in crisis, especially mental and charity e)police, crime cameras, justice in transition f)schools in the future g)city government laid off but functioning h)bond ratings improved from junk to stable i)retail and tourism strong j)population 54-62% at 282,000. He continued to place blame on federal and state officials, nailing the Road Home program and FEMA repeatedly. There were no colorful verbal gaffes, even when he spoke extemporaneously. He failed to outline a coherent vision for recovery, but apparently we're going to get there anyway.

Watching the City Council in action lends credence to the idea that the city's government is under performing. Important programs like the Good Neighbor plan to clean, gut, and ultimately demolish abandoned properties are struggling with poor administration, lack coordination with other programs and seem poised to waste public funds and trust through mistakes and missed opportunities. Overall transparency of city government is low.

An Inspector General was finally named, he arrived and initially sounds good. However his budget has not been established, he claims to need $3 million per year to do the job and the city has provided him $250,000 for the second half of 2007. This will play out over the next few months.

Crime is definitely slowing but it may not seem that way becosue there have been so many corruption cases in the news.. The Federal effort to move the most prolific criminal offenders from parish to federal jurisdiction seems to be having the desired effect on violence.  However there is a long way to go as even the reduced rate continues to see shooting after shooting in the city.

Yet another multiple murder suspect is again behind bars. The last three times he was arrested for murder he was released for lack of witnesses and evidence.  Let's hope this time the police and DA are working together to make our city a safer place.

The prosecution of the seven police officers arrested for murder at the Danziger bridge and the doctor and two nurses arrested for murder at Memorial Hospital continued in June. A past school board president pled guilty to taking bribes to contract for a curriculum product. A Morial administration director of property management was sentenced to nine years in federal prison for fraud in a city energy efficiency contract. Judges King and Parker made the news last month in a negative light when Parker issued a light sentence to King on a past conviction. Hon. Martha Sassone rounds out the list with a suspension.

The Metropolitan Crime Commission issued their first quarter 2007 report containing criticism of the police for too many arrests on minor offenses undermining the relationship with the community (opposite of "Broken Glass" theory). A Senate Judiciary subcommittee came to town to hear about the CJS. They heard the judges are letting criminals out of jail, the DA is having trouble prioritizing and violent criminals are still on the loose in an around the city.

Kevorkian is out of jail. Paris is in jail. Martha Stewart is feeling left out because she hasn't done anything lately. Scooter Libby was sentenced to 30 months as the fall guy. Bodenheimer, Green and even Edwin Edwards are still in jail. I am more worried about a fourteen year old with a Saturday night special who needs to establish his credentials with some pointless gang. Apparently the sanitation queen bee wants me in jail because my trash is trashy and I left the lid up. William Jefferson was indicted, but he is still in Congress making laws.



21 Months 23 months


Created : 7/1/2007 2:46:22 AM Updated: 7/1/2007 2:56:49 AM

  f1 f3

Web Application Byf3 ConsenCIS

 

sitemap

1042

 

Notes regarding this page
  • Subnotes