June 2007 is month 22 since Katrina. Hurricane Season 2007 started on June 1st and we hope we are ready.
Without
El Ninõ in the Pacific to protect us with wind shear across the Gulf, this year could be sporty. The
Loop Current
may be working in our favor this year as it generated a new eddy in May
which will be well to our west of the when the height of the danger
season arrives in August and September. Planning to evacuate those
unable to evacuate themselves is continuing but the contracts have yet
to be let and parts of the plan are still vague.
The
Klotzbach-Gray prediction at the University of Colorado
is one of the most referenced hurricane predictions in the business. Updated May 31:
The risk of a major hurricane making landfall in 2007 is 140% of average. Predictions include 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 major storms. Basin wide ACE of 170.
Strike probabilities are also up at 49% for Gulf Coast, 50% for the East Coast, and
74% U.S. Worry days are predicted to be 40 for hurricanes, and 11 for intense storms.
The Corps published a new risk assessment this month.
None too optimistic, they don't show the city to be protected from
storm induced flooding. In fact all the Corps has been able to do is
provide updated estimates of how many feet deep the flooding will be
throughout the city. Across the city the improvement from preKatrina to
now is only about a one foot reduction in the expected flooding. The
situation is so grim on the Westbank to the east of the Harvey Canal
that the Corps isn't even hazarding a guess. The incomplete
improvements around the Harvey Canal continue to leave the area wide
open. This was one area in the city that avoided flooding by Katrina.
Does it make sense to leave it unprotected for the foreseeable future?
General
recovery progress is noticeable, but it seems wherever we focus our
attention there are more challenges to be met. Half of the city is
bustling with activity, habitable and clean courtesy of some new
garbage contracts although vast stretches of the hard hit districts
are still mostly abandoned. Everyone but the last 200,000 citizens are
back. Many of the missing may never return, having now made their lives
over elsewhere. Government provided infrastructure like levees, roads,
public schools, justice, water and sewer service are continuing to
crumble and under perform. Way too many traffic lights still aren't
working. Roads are crumbling and there is construction everywhere
uptown. Private infrastructure like electricity, private schools and
telecom are working fine. The jury is still out on the public charter
schools as we await the detailed results from the LEAP tests. The
health care system is working fine for the insured and struggling with
the uninsured. FEMA just agreed to pay for rebuilding the water system
at least back to its preK condition.
With 22,174 Road Home closings completed by May 28 and about $1.7
billion released, ICF is definitely in gear. Applications will be
accepted until July 31. After that we'll know how great the deficit is.
Right now it looks like $10.5 billion in payments plus $750 million in
administration will cost taxpayers $11.3 billion. At the current rate
the program will reach 140,000 closings by June 1, 2008. Hazard
Mitigation Grants, Increased Cost of Compliance, Rental Building
Assistance and many appeals will remain to be resolved.
The Louisiana Legislative regular session just ended and the state will
spend an unprecedented $32 billion next year of which half comes from
federal sources.
In
a major State of the City address on May 30, 2007 Mayor Nagin laid it
out for all to see. His big points were what we've accomplished and the
list is significant even if a bit over stated: a)debris removed,
garbage collection improving cleanliness b)levees repaired (well, maybe
some) c)streets crumbling but being repaired d)health care in crisis,
especially mental and charity e)police, crime cameras, justice in
transition f)schools in the future g)city government laid off but
functioning h)bond ratings improved from junk to stable i)retail and
tourism strong j)population 54-62% at 282,000. He continued to place
blame on federal and state officials, nailing the Road Home program and
FEMA repeatedly. There were no colorful verbal gaffes, even when he
spoke extemporaneously. He failed to outline a coherent vision for
recovery, but apparently we're going to get there anyway.
Watching
the City Council in action lends credence to the idea that the city's
government is under performing. Important programs like the Good
Neighbor plan to clean, gut, and ultimately demolish abandoned
properties are struggling with poor administration, lack coordination
with other programs and seem poised to waste public funds and trust
through mistakes and missed opportunities. Overall transparency of city
government is low.
An Inspector General was finally named, he
arrived and initially sounds good. However his budget has not been
established, he claims to need $3 million per year to do the job and
the city has provided him $250,000 for the second half of 2007. This
will play out over the next few months.
Crime is definitely
slowing but it may not seem that way becosue there have been so many
corruption cases in the news.. The Federal effort to move the most
prolific criminal offenders from parish to federal jurisdiction seems
to be having the desired effect on violence. However there is a long
way to go as even the reduced rate continues to see shooting after
shooting in the city.
Yet another multiple murder suspect is
again behind bars. The last three times he was arrested for murder he
was released for lack of witnesses and evidence. Let's hope this time
the police and DA are working together to make our city a safer place.
The
prosecution of the seven police officers arrested for murder at the
Danziger bridge and the doctor and two nurses arrested for murder at
Memorial Hospital continued in June. A past school board president pled
guilty to taking bribes to contract for a curriculum product. A Morial
administration director of property management was sentenced to nine
years in federal prison for fraud in a city energy efficiency contract.
Judges King and Parker made the news last month in a negative
light when Parker issued a light sentence to King on a past conviction.
Hon. Martha Sassone rounds out the list with a suspension.
The
Metropolitan Crime Commission issued their first quarter 2007 report
containing criticism of the police for too many arrests on minor
offenses undermining
the relationship with the community (opposite of "Broken Glass"
theory). A Senate Judiciary subcommittee came to town to hear about the
CJS. They heard the judges are letting criminals out of jail, the DA is
having trouble prioritizing and violent criminals are still on the
loose in an around the city.
Kevorkian
is out of jail. Paris is in jail. Martha Stewart is feeling left out
because she hasn't done anything lately. Scooter Libby was sentenced to
30 months as the fall guy. Bodenheimer, Green and even Edwin Edwards
are still in jail. I am more worried about a fourteen year old with a
Saturday night special who needs to establish his credentials with some
pointless gang. Apparently the sanitation queen bee wants me in jail
because my trash is trashy and I left the lid up. William Jefferson was
indicted, but he is still in Congress making laws.