These guys get immersed in the data and the math models. Not to draw any unkind conclusions, but it seems the weather guys always predict an above average year of activity. Their typical above average guess is 14-18 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes.

The Klotzbach-Gray prediction at the University of Colorado is one of the most referenced in the business. In December of 2006 they issued their 2007 prediction. They predicted a 40% chance that one major storm will hit the Gulf Coast (vs 30% on average). Named storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes is 14/7/3.  They also predicted an Atlantic Basin ACE of 130-140.

UPDATED MAY 31, 2007  (Major Hurricane landfall risk is 140% of average)
Now they are predicting 17/9/5 named/hurricane/major storms and ACE of 170. Strike probabilities are also up at 49% Gulf Coast / 50% East Coast / 74% U.S. Worry days are 40/11 for hurricanes/intense.

REVISED JULY 31, 2007  Now they are predicting 13/8/4 named/hurricane/major storms. Less favorable conditions for storm formation are being observed in the Atlantic.

Klotzbach and Gray are adamant that Global Warming is not a culprit pointing to the AMO, La Nina conditions and relying on the constancy of the vertical lapse rate in the face of small (0.5C) average temperature changes.

The following tables from the December, 2006 report show accurate predictions of hurricane activity are not within the current state-of-the-art. And it shows clearly that don't always err on the high side.

2001	7 Dec. 2000	Update 6 April	Update 7 June	Update 7 August	Obs.
No. of Hurricanes	5	6	7	7	9
No. of Named Storms	9	10	12	12	15
No. of Hurricane Days	20	25	30	30	27
No. of Named Storm Days	45	50	60	60	63
Hurr. Destruction Potential	65	65	75	75	71
Intense Hurricanes	2	2	3	3	4
Intense Hurricane Days	4	4	5	5	5
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity	90	100	120	120	142

 

2002	7 Dec. 2001	Update 5 April	Update 31 May	Update 7 August	Update 2 Sept.	Obs.
No. of Hurricanes	8	7	6	4	3	4
No. of Named Storms	13	12	11	9	8	12
No. of Hurricane Days	35	30	25	12	10	11
No. of Named Storm Days	70	65	55	35	25	54
Hurr. Destruction Potential	90	85	75	35	25	31
Intense Hurricanes	4	3	2	1	1	2
Intense Hurricane Days	7	6	5	2	2	2.5
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity	140	125	100	60	45	80

 

2003	6 Dec. 2002	Update 4 April	Update 30 May	Update 6 August	Update 3 Sept.	Update 2 Oct.	Obs.
No. of Hurricanes	8	8	8	8	7	8	7
No. of Named Storms	12	12	14	14	14	14	14
No. of Hurricane Days	35	35	35	25	25	35	32
No. of Named Storm Days	65	65	70	60	55	70	71
Hurr. Destruction Potential	100	100	100	80	80	125	129
Intense Hurricanes	3	3	3	3	3	2	3
Intense Hurricane Days	8	8	8	5	9	15	17
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity	140	140	145	120	130	155	173

 

2004	5 Dec. 2003	Update 2 April	Update 28 May	Update 6 August	Update 3 Sept.	Update 1 Oct.	Obs.
No. of Hurricanes	7	8	8	7	8	9	9
No. of Named Storms	13	14	14	13	16	15	14
No. of Hurricane Days	30	35	35	30	40	52	46
No. of Named Storm Days	55	60	60	55	70	96	90
Intense Hurricanes	3	3	3	3	5	6	6
Intense Hurricane Days	6	8	8	6	15	23	22
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity	125	145	145	125	185	240	229

 

2005	3 Dec. 2004	Update 1 April	Update 31 May	Update 5 August	Update 2 Sept.	Update 3 Oct.	Obs.
No. of Hurricanes	6	7	8	10	10	11	14
No. of Named Storms	11	13	15	20	20	20	26
No. of Hurricane Days	25	35	45	55	45	40	48
No. of Named Storm Days	55	65	75	95	95	100	116
Intense Hurricanes	3	3	4	6	6	6	7
Intense Hurricane Days	6	7	11	18	15	13	16.75
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity	115	135	170	235	220	215	263

 

2006	6 Dec. 2005	Update 4 April	Update 31 May	Update 3 August	Update 1 Sept.	Update 3 Oct.	Obs.
No. of Hurricanes	9	9	9	7	5	6	5
No. of Named Storms	17	17	17	15	13	11	9
No. of Hurricane Days	45	45	45	35	13	23	20
No. of Named Storm Days	85	85	85	75	50	58	50
Intense Hurricanes	5	5	5	3	2	2	2
Intense Hurricane Days	13	13	13	8	4	3	3
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity	195	195	195	140	90	95	85