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Hurricane Alley


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9 predictors of Gulf Coast hurricane activity Measured between January and April of each year the following predictors seem linked to Atlantic and Gulf Coast tropical cyclonic activity from June to November. The Hurricane Alley site provides a more scientific description of each indicator. More simplified explanations follow:
  1. Niño 4 SST anomalies ...sea surface temperatures at the equator south of Hawaii. This is west of the El Niño upwelling area off Peru. Higher temperatures here mean more storms but not bigger storms in the Gulf

  2. 850mb Zonal Wind Central Pacific ...strong winds south of Hawaii correlate to more storms

  3. North Atlantic SST's ...hotter sea surface temperatures north of Brazil just east of the Carribbean mean more storms

  4. South Atlantic SST's ...hotter sea surface temperatures east of Brazil and towards Africa also mean bigger storms

  5. Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation ...1 degree change in sea surface temperature over several decades, more storms in the hot phase

  6. Southeastern Pacific SLP ...sea level atmospheric pressures west of the Galapagos may be another El Niño effect; the higher they are (fewer thunderstorms, dryer air, more sunny days), the bigger the storms

  7. 500 mb Temperature Anomalies ...when mid altitude atmospheric temperatures are higher there are more and bigger storms

  8. Globally Integrated Angular Momentum ...a real mouthful, the atmosphere slips as the Earth turns beneath it the greater the slip (less GAMM) the more storms, but the really big storms come more frequently when there is less slippage

  9. Outgoing Long-wave Radiation ...measured by satellite, more suggests hotter cloud top and correlates to more and bigger storms

 





Hurricane Whisperers 2007


Created : 8/2/2007 7:17:39 AM Updated: 8/2/2007 11:35:22 AM

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