Gustav joins Ivan as another New Orleans near miss that extracts a vicious toll on the people of New Orleans and its neighboring communities.

By Saturday August 30, 2008 evacuation of the city was underway again. Dangerous Hurricane Gustav had New Orleans clearly in his sights. The storm formed in the Caribbean, doused Haiti, pummeled Jamaica and the Caymans then crossed western Cuba, aimed directly for New Orleans. As it neared, the storm veered slightly west. Wind shear in the upper atmosphere prevented strengthening over the Loop Current. Cooler waters near the shore took their toll. The weakened storm came ashore at Cocodrie, just southwest of Houma, and sixty miles west of New Orleans. This thin margin reduced what looked like a monumental tragedy for New Orleans to a memorable inconvenience. This city which hasn't recovered from 2005 will live to remember Labor Day 2008.

Even as the threat developed and waned the TV could cover nothing else. Every storm that threatens the city from now on will undoubtely be called "the one" by some pundit or another. The Mayor called this one the "Mother of All Storms." Public officials and other public figures who feel it is their responsibility to protect the populace, have settled on the notion that they are within their capacities to incite fear and even impose hardship on those they seek to protect.

Gridlock emerged early. Contraflow started at 4am on Saturday and was judged a stunning success even before the city was empty. The reality on the roads was harsher. Thirty and forty mile long traffic jams inched forward on I59 averaging under ten miles per hour. Plans changed unpredictably as coordination among the states involved in the evacuation was not up to the task.

Traffic headed east from New Orleans was initially expected to use all four lanes of I10 to exit the city. Both side of the twin spans were used to get folks out of town before Katrina, but someone changed the plans. Mississippi requested that Louisiana block I10 east at Slidell. This meant the contraflow plan which had two lanes of I 10 going east and four lanes north was restricted to go north alone. Traffic headed WEST from Mississippi joined the flow to the north. Traffic backed up across the high rise, past the 610 merge and all the way back to the Superdome. Getting out of the city to the east took a minimum of four hours if you started at 4 am on Saturday.

Once you crossed the twin spans you found yourself heading east on I 10, but not for long. Police closed I 10 east at Slidell and diverted all traffic north on I59. I 10 was not closed, just that access point. If you could gain access to I 10 east (as you could from I 12 or US 90) you'd find smooth sailing all the way to Pascagoula.

Then the Mississippi State police closed exits on Interstate 59 forcing evacuees forward on that road even when they needed to stop for health and safety. Approximately 20 miles into Mississippi, contraflow ended as abruptly as it began. Four lanes merged into to two. The predictable backup trapped motorists all the way back to Slidell. Inexplicably traffic from US highway 11 was routed onto I59 at McNeill increasing the mess. What should have been a 40 minute drive took four or more  hours to navigate. Cars stopped on the side of the road borken down and out of fuel. Accidents emerged as miles of stop and go traffic took its toll a few were serious and caused more congestion. Drivers and passengers took to the woods to find comfort. The elderly and infirm suffered. Frustration, anger and fear shared the day with patience and compassion.

Then just before mile marker 25 there was a change. Four lanes merged abruptly into to two under the watchful eye of Mississippi State Troopers. Traffic thinned and accelerated to 70 miles per hour. The first exit created a quarter mile jam up on the highway as motorists attempted to exit for fuel and relief. The second exit had crowds of the slightly more patient. Traffic flowed smoothly into Hattiesburg and beyond. But the nightmare was not over.

Further north, at the point where I59 merged into I20 at Meridian there was another monumental choke point. Traffic going north on 59 had to shrink from two lanes into one for about 100 yards before it merged with traffic headed east on I20. Traffic backed up on 59 for thirty miles to the south. State police could have rearranged the traffic cones and prevented this mess, but that much foresight was not in the cards on this day.

Gustav missed New Orleans the next day by a slim margin. The mayor reopened the city two days later on the 4th. By midday on the 6th, the National Weather service began to predict the New Orleans was within the cone of probabilities for landfall by Hurricane Ike.

What did we learn from Gustav? People are willing to evacuate. Public officials should not exaggerate threats. Traffic must be managed across state lines. Ships and barges should not be allowed to get loose during a storm. Electrical  power systems are vital and vulnerable. Reentry should not be denied even if risks and hardships could ensue.

"You got chiefs of police in Picayune and Poplarville directing traffic for 12 hours. They need to be out doing other things," Thompson said.

Contraflow restricts all lanes of Interstate 59 and Interstate 55 in Mississippi to northbound traffic only. It was first implemented before Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and can only take place when agreed to by the governors of Louisiana and Mississippi during category 3, 4 or 5 hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico.

The contraflow begins in Louisiana, extends into Mississippi and ends just south of Poplarville for I-59 and just south of Brookhaven for I-55. "It's a work in progress and we learn something every time we do it," Simpson said.

Extending contraflow up to Hattiesburg has been considered, especially since that city is larger than Poplarville and could better provide services to weary evacuees, Simpson said. The only problem with that plan, officials say, is there are not enough available physical resources to bring contraflow up that far north on I-59.

Pearl River County officials say they need more help and assistance before a storm hits rather than after a hurricane comes ashore.Simpson said it may be that the Department of Wildlife, Fisheries & Parks, the National Guard or other organizations could station personnel in areas where help would be needed before a storm.

Simpson said he will meet wildlife officials this month to discuss bringing them into the traffic flow plan.