New computer storm model condemns role MRGO played in Katrina flooding

by Sheila Grissett

Thursday December 18, 2008, 11:25 AM

Had there been no MR-GO when Hurricane Katrina roared out of the Gulf of Mexico atop a record storm surge, the catastrophic flooding that killed some 1,500 people in the New Orleans region would have been reduced by 80 percent, an outspoken coastal scientist told regional levee commissioners Thursday.

Ivor Van Heerden, also well-known critic of the Army Corps of Engineers who led the state's investigation into Katrina failures, said new computer modeling done over the last 12 to 18 months also proves that one mile of healthy wetlands can reduce storm surge by one foot.

"That's more (reduction) than we've known before," he told Southeast Louisiana Flood Protection Authority-East members.

"I've seen a recent paper that says wetlands have no value ... and I'll be using this modeling and some old (science) to counter that," he said.

Van Heerden also opined that the computer wave modeling done by the corps-led task force that also investigated levee and floodwall failures during Katrina wasn't sufficient to paint a clear picture of what really happened when water pushed in from the Gulf and up against the region's eastern flank along St Bernard and Orleans parishes.

"They didn't capture all the real wave dynamics," said Van Heerden, who told commissioners before his presentation that one of his sources of funding was from the legal team suing the corps over Katrina flooding.

Commissioners peppered Van Heerden with questions, quizzing him for details of the work done by his team at the LSU Hurricane Center, along with a well-known modeling company in the Netherlands and a group of engineers from the University of California at Berkeley. At least one of the Berkeley scientists also does work for the litigation team in New Orleans.