Nine years have passed since our disastrous close miss. Let us review starting with what almost happened.
Offical NOAA advisory000 WWUS74 KLIX 281550 NPWLIX
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...
.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.
AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!
In a way we caught a break. If it had turned out as the NOAA predicted a few brave souls may be venturing back now. The whole city would be like the lower Ninth where 3,000 out of the 15,000 who once lived there have returned in nine years.
Lakeview has recovered in a sense. It is becoming a suburb of McMansions. The $350,000 tear down is next door to the $2.7 million multi-lot walled complex. The Sliver by the River was untouched and seems much the same. Some parts are a little shabbier. Everything is more expensive.
Too much of the rest of the city has not been repaired. Abandoned and partially repaired properties abound. Lots of buildings have been raised. Big money went into Mitigation Projects.
Ten housing projects are gone. Replaced by nine mutli-use residential neighborhoods. We'll see how this works out. The Iberville was the last project standing. 59 of its 75 buildings were demoed last year. Renovation and construction of the mixed use replacement is under way.
The new VA Hospital corridor is under construction and speculators are making a killing in Tulane Avenue corridor. Lots of new high rise condos are being built.
The city still has no substantial economic base. Tourism, the port, and movies will not support this population. We've been living on federal grants for so long it seems normal. Recent rate increases in sewerage and water bills (doubling over seven years) and Algiers electricity (30% over two years) hints at a future of much higher costs.
Many Orleans public schools have become charters although the RSD is still in business almost ten years down the road. It's hard to educate people who don't see much value in education.
Flood control is awesome. The Great Wall out in Lake Borgne and the West Closure Complex can stop a lot of water from getting into the city. They are designed to stop a 100 year storm. They would have been overwhelmed by the storm NOAA thought was headed our way in August 2005, but that was a 500 year storm, we shouldn't see another one of those this decade.
There are still a few weak points. Mr GO is closed and stoppered by some rocks but the environmental damage is still there and the marsh is still shrinking. That may be the worst problem but it is not the only weak spot. The temporary pumping stations and flood walls built by the Corps of Engineers at the mouths of the Orleans parish drainage canals need to be replaced. Permanent stations like those in Jefferson Parish are still the answer. Weren't those the weak points last time?
In August 2010, the grassroots group Levees.org installed a plaque vetted and fact checked by the Louisiana State Office of Historic Preservation at the levee breach site. The text of the plaque reads as follows:
On August 29, 2005, a federal floodwall atop a levee on the 17th Street Canal, the largest and most important drainage canal for the city, gave way here causing flooding that killed hundreds. This breach was one of 50 ruptures in the federal Flood Protection System that occurred that day. In 2008, the US District Court placed responsibility for this floodwall's collapse squarely on the US Army Corps of Engineers; however, the agency is protected from financial liability in the Flood Control Act of 1928.