Baby Boomers just began entering the over 65 age group in
2011. Although old age benefits payments begin at age 65, boomers told a Pew
Research survey they felt old age begins at 72 and reported individually that
they “felt” 9 years younger than their chronological age. Pew maintains an extensive database of
surveys regarding ageing with a nice summary in their 2009 report: Growing Old in America: Expectations vs. Reality.
Senior citizens are supported by the Social Security, and Medicare
systems providing income and single payer healthcare for 40 million Americans
over age 65 (13% of the population) and 5 million younger Americans qualified
by disability.
The number of seniors over 65 is forecast to grow to 88
million in 2050 which would be 19% of the population. Average Medicare benefits
of about $12,000 per year have been growing slower than all medical costs but have
still grown more than 5% per year since 1990. Growth in Medicare forecasts is
expected to be 3% per year through 2020. If the forecasts are correct the
Medicare trust fund will be exhausted in 2024. Social Security is forecast to
grow as well, exhausting its trust fund in 2034.
Management of the $1T per year in taxes (15% payroll tax)
and spending as well as the $4T trust fund designated for senior care is a
source of continuing debate and a political third rail. Enhanced longevity and
an elder care bubble due to the “Baby Boomers” are stressing the system. Boomers
have been paying into the system for their entire lives and expect something
back.
Organizations
like the AARP wield considerable power in focusing older citizen’s attention on
issues affecting these benefits. Medicaid rules encourage many families to
strip their elders of their assets in order to “game the system” and qualify
for living assistance. Alarmists have been trumpeting the catastrophic demise
of Social Security since the 1960’s.